Directional Election in Canada: Forecasts see Prime Minister Trudeau ahead





The Conservatives drive an anti-Trudeau campaign. But the Canadian Prime Minister also provides enough starting points for this. Nevertheless, his liberals seem to be regaining the strongest power in parliament, according to initial projections.


The Liberals of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have once again become the strongest force in the parliamentary elections in Canada. The party will get the most votes, predicted the public broadcaster CBC. In 2015, the Liberals had won an absolute majority.

In the run-up, a narrow election outcome had been predicted between the liberals of Trudeau and its conservative challenger Andrew Scheer. Around 27 million citizens in the G7 country were called upon to elect new MPs. Liberals and conservatives have looked at polls with about 30 to 34 percent at the same time.

For an absolute majority of 170 seats in parliament in the capital Ottawa, that would not be enough. The deputies are elected by direct election according to the majority principle. Particularly important are the densely populated areas around the city of Toronto, where the vote decides. First election results are expected on Tuesday morning German time. The last polling stations should close at 4:00 CEST on the west coast of Canada.

If a minority government were needed, Trudeau or Scheer would have to rely on tacit support from smaller parties. Among them, the Social Democrats of Jagmeet Singh were recently on the rise. Like the Greens, they are politically closer to the liberals. Even the strengthened regional party Bloc Québécois could ultimately be decisive.

Trudeau with problems

Trudeau leads the North American country's government with 37 million inhabitants since 2015 by an absolute majority. His record after four years is mixed. Although he has legalized marijuana as promised and has taken in more than 25,000 Syrian refugees. However, he was unable to keep some of his election promises, such as an electoral reform or a balanced budget, until 2019.

In recent months, Trudeau has also caused scandals. First, it was announced that he wanted to suppress investigations against the Canadian company SNC-Lavalin for bribery in Libya – an ethics committee certified him wrong behavior. In September, a 20-year-old picture emerged, showing Trudeau's dark-painted face – disguised as Aladdin – at a party. The Prime Minister apologized for his "racist" behavior.

He voted for Trudeau anyway, a taxi driver in Montreal said. "All in all, he has been a good prime minister for the past four years and I am and just will remain a Liberal."

Anti-Trudeau Conservative Campaign

The Conservatives waged an anti-Trudeau Election Campaign. Scheer insulted the PM among other things as a "cheater" who dupes the Canadian people. In terms of content, he promised the citizens "more money in their pockets" in the face of concerns about rising prices. The Conservatives' electoral base has traditionally been more rural, particularly in the central provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Climate change also played a major role in the election campaign, with the Conservatives seeking to reverse the CO2 tax introduced by the Liberals , the policy of the Trudeau government does not go far enough for many others. Canada is about to miss its own climate targets. In addition, many Canadians resent the once "sonny-boy" -owned Trudeau, who, while always presenting himself as an environmentalist and fighter against climate change, approved a new oil pipeline across the country. "He is hypocritical," said the student Ève Gaboury the "New York Times."

Many Canadians would see that, said Jean-Marc Léger, head of a Canadian polling institute, the newspaper. "The Canadians have not forgiven Mr. Trudeau, but many see the prime minister as the least vicious option."

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